Is Jaguar going to benefit or go further into decline in the coming years and decades owned by Indian conglomerate, Tata? Having worked for Ford Motor Company for a few years at its corporate headquarters in Dearborn, Michigan, I have an opinion or two on this issue. Also, with this acquisition complete, we will all become familiar with this logo, as Tata is now on the world stage.

The short answer is: it will largely depend on how much money is invested and involve a degree of unpredictable luck. Ford invested a lot, actually billions, and it still didn’t quite work out as planned. Ford tried valiantly to right Jaguar’s woes and couldn’t. I hate to say it, but Tata will likely need to leverage the new XF design and reformat the entire Jaguar image, leaving everything we know today in the past. Ford tried very hard to keep the stately designs of yesteryear (introduced the S-type and X-type car lines and refreshed the all new XJ and XK) that just didn’t sit right with well-heeled buyers who wanted something newer looking instead of father’s Jaguar. At the time, I wholeheartedly thought Ford’s corporate direction was wise to stay true to the stately Jaguar heritage in spite of its competitors fresh (many say BMW’s ugly Bangle design) style direction. Sometimes focus groups don’t yield the desired results and sales were poor.

Will Tata handle the challenge? Will Tata’s management have the perseverance to stick out the tough times and continue to invest in new platforms, drivetrains, powertrains, safety devices, manufacturing facilities, new technologies, top management staff, new product lines, etc? The cost is in the multi billions, and there are several car lines to support and grow in an ever increasingly competitive market environment. And…Tata has to cope with all the same issues at Land Rover too!

Granted, I don’t have inside experience at Tata, but while it is an enormous corporation, the strains and complexity of a medium scale automotive manufacturer like Jaguar (not to mention Land Rover) will test Tata’s resolve. The $2.3 billion paid by Tata (actually it is $1.7 billion paid after Ford subsidizes another $600 million to further fund the pension plan) pales when compared to $2.5 billion it paid 1989 for Jaguar and $2.7 billion in 2000 for Land Rover. Ford invested another $10 billion since 1989 to improve the two brands. These are nutty sums of cash…and investments that didn’t pan out. The Indian company gets a chance for the first time to stand on the world automotive stage with two prestigious brands with steeped British history and this is very alluring to Tata’s billionaire majority shareholder, Ratan Tata. Now, we will see how long the honey moon lasts and see how good looking are the children going to be.

I think Tata will end up casting off Land Rover in the next few years to a company who sees upside to producing upscale trucks. I think Tata will give it a serious go with Jaguar for the next decade without hesitation, even if sales are slow and the brand falters. One thing is for sure, Jaguar will not be an easy brand to manage. Ford’s time with Jaguar will hopefully be noted in the history books as a quality attempt to right the struggling brand and not be written off as an obvious squandery under American ownership. Ford put a lot of attention into Jaguar and genuinely desired to improve the brand. While Jaguar did indeed improve in sales, quality and product breadth, the up tick was insignificant compared to the price tag Ford invested.

This brings us to another prestigious brand that has recently been spun off from Ford after 20 years to its newest and 13th owner for $925 million. Aston Martin is now owned primarily by a Middle East (Kuwaiti) funded private equity firm. This too will be interesting to see if they recognize the needs of an automotive holding that requires them to plow hundreds of millions (or easily billions) of dollars continually for refreshing and redeveloping the brand, much like loved or hated George Steinbrenner had done for decades with that one New York baseball team. Aston Martin’s current path is positive, but without continued massive loads of engineering, technology and design, the car magazines and pundits will quickly dismiss the car as having veered of course. Aston Martin’s brand has historically suffered in the shadow of Ferrari, fairly or unfairly. Point being, even with Ford having invested massively in the VH platform, V12 and recently V8 engines, Ian Callum’s designs and new product lines, the car maker has just barely turned the corner towards a high quality product, beautiful styling, increasing production and sales and profitability…and then it got sold off. To use another baseball analogy, since it is the beginning of baseball season, the Marlins win the World Series only to then get sold off and dip back into the pool of contenders. Let’s hope that Aston Martin’s new home leads to a different fate.

The automotive industry is rife with companies that got the formula correct only to briefly take a collective sigh of relief and revel in the good times before realizing they are driving right back into the ditch again. Time will tell for Jaguar, Land Rover and Aston Martin. When I was at FoMoCo, I solidly thought those three brands had a permanent home for eternity. How quickly things change when money and patience run out. Let’s wish the brands well.

Do you have a perspective on how the models will fair in the market? Will they improve or deteriorate? Will the styling run a muck? Will the car makers cut corners and miss the mark? There are lot’s of risk for these marques. Thoughts?